Weather Research Center

3227 Audley Houston, Texas 77098 Phone: 713-529-3076 Fax: 713-528-3538 E-mail: wrc@wxresearch.com

 

November 30, 1999

1999 Hurricane Outllook Verification.

 

HOUSTON - Meteorologist at Houston based Weather Research Center predicted that there would be 10 named storms with 6 intensifying into hurricanes. There were 12 storms and 8 became hurricanes. The Centerís outlook also called for an 80% chance of category 3 or stronger storms. This verified with Hurricanes Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert and Lenny.

The Orbital Cyclone Strike Index(OCSI) was used to make this outlook. The main forecast made with the OCSI is to indicate which section of the US Coast is at the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane landfall. This year the coast with the highest risk was from Louisiana to Alabama with a 90% chance. This year did not verify with storms hitting on the coast on either side of this section but not along that section of the coast. The second highest risk coast area was the West Coast of Florida which verified with Harvey. The complete breakdown is as follows:

 

East Coast of US 30% Floyd

North Carolina to Georgia 70% Dennis, Floyd, Irene

East Coast of Florida 60% Irene

West Coast of Florida 80% Harvey

Alabama to Louisiana 90%

Texas 70% Bret

 

Meteorologist at the Center have been using the OCSI since 1985 to make annual hurricane outlooks. Before 1999, the only two years when a storm did not make landfall in the section of the coast with the highest risk were in 1987 and 1992. But like this year these years did have storms in the second highest at risk coast line. So for the last15 years that have been forecasted only three did not verify with the highest probability. There for 12 out 15 years did verify for 80% correct.