Weather Research Center
ORBITAL CYCLONE STRIKE INDEX FORECASTS
YEAR19961997199819992000
HIGHEST STRIKE PROBABILITY
Forecast:GA/NC (90%)LA/AL (70%) W.FL (90%)LA/AL (90%)W.FL (60%)
Observed:ArthurDannyEarl~ Gordon
Observed:Bertha~ Mitch~ Helene
Observed:Fran~ ~ ~ ~
Forecast:~ ~ ~ WFL (90%) LA-AL (60%)
Observed:~ ~ ~ HarveyGordon
Forecast:~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Observed:~ ~ ~ ~ ~
YEAR19961997199819992000
SECOND HIGHEST STRIKE PROBABILITY
Forecast: W. FL--(70%)W. FL-(60%)MEX (70%)GA-NC(70%)---------------
Observed:JosephineDannyMitchFloyd~
Forecast:~GA-NC 60%E.FL (70%)TX 70%~
Observed:~~~Bret~
NUMBER OF STORMS Forecast:11 7 8 10 8
Observed:13 7 141214
NUMBER OF HURRICANES Forecast:54 565
Observed:931088
NUMBER OF HURRICANE DAYS Forecast:247253020
Observed:4510494332
STORM STRIKES ALONG U.S. COAST:
Forecast: 4 33 53
Observed:41752
STRONG HURRICANES (CATEGORY 3 OR HIGHER) Forecast: 50% 50%30%80%30%
Observed:Bertha/EdouardErikaBonnieBret/CindyAlberto
Fran/Hortense~GeorgesFloyd/GertIsaac
Isidore/Lili~MitchLennyKeith
Weather Research Center
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Houston, Texas 77004
(713) 529-3076