Weather Research Center

ORBITAL CYCLONE STRIKE INDEX FORECASTS

YEAR	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
HIGHEST STRIKE PROBABILITY
Forecast:	LA-AL(70%)	W.FL (80%)	NE US (70%)	W.FL (70%)	TX (70%)	LA/AL (80%)	TX(66%)
Observed:	Allison	Hanna	Isabel	Bonnie Charley Frances Ivan	Rita	~	Humberto
Forecast:	W.FL (70%)	_	GA-NC (70%)	_	W.FL (70%)	~	LA/AL (66%)
Observed:	Gabrielle	~	Isabel	~	Dennis Wilma	~	Humberto
Forecast:	LA-AL (70%)	~	~	~	~	~	W FL (66%)
Observed:	Allison	~	~	~	~	~	Barry
YEAR	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
SECOND HIGHEST STRIKE PROBABILITY
Forecast:	GA-NC(60%)	LA-AL (60%)	~	TX (60%)	GA-NC (60%)	GA/NC (66%)	~
Observed:	~	Isidore-Lili	Bill- ~	Ivan	Ophelia	Alberto Ernesto	~
Forecast:		TX___ (60%)	-	-	-	-	-
Observed:	~	Fay - Bertha	~	~	~	~	~
NUMBER OF STORMS Forecast:	9	6	7	7	10	9>	7
Observed:	15	12	16	14	27	10	7*
NUMBER OF HURRICANES Forecast:	6	3	5	4	5	4	4
Observed:	9	4	7	9	15	5	6
NUMBER OF HURRICANE DAYS Forecast:	20	15	21	16	21	25	22
Observed:	27	11	33	46	51	50	32
STORM STRIKES ALONG U.S. COAST Forecast:	3	3	3	3	4	3	3
Observed:	3	6	5	9	9	3	2*
STRONG HURRICANES (CATEGORY 3 OR HIGHER) Forecast:	90%	50%	30%	60%	50%	67%	67%
Observed:	Iris Michelle	Isidore Lili	Fabian Isabel	Charley Frances Ivan	Dennis Emily Katrina Maria Rita Wilma Beta	Gordon Helene	Dean Felix

*1 Subtropical Storm Which is not counted and 6 other questionable storms with high pressures or could have been classified as Sub Tropical Weather Research Center
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