3227 Audley Houston, Texas 77098 Phone: 713-529-3076 Fax: 713-528-3538 E-mail: wrc@wxresearch.org

Houston – According to meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and Dr. John C. Freeman of Weather Research Center, the 2003 Atlantic storm season had a chance of experiencing a hurricane along the upper Texas Coast. Hurricane Claudette verifies this prediction. When reviewing the past years in this phase of the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI], Ms. Hasling found that there were that two past years in this phase of the OCSI 1961 and 1983 had hurricanes, which significantly impacted the upper Texas coast, Hurricane Carla 1961 and Hurricane Alicia 1983.

The OCSI also indicated that there could be an early start of the Hurricane season. When you review the past years, which are in this phase of the OCSI [1874, 1885, 1896, 1908, 1920, 1930, 1940, 1951, 1961, 1971, 1983, and 1993], one of the years, 1908, had a hurricane which formed March 6. Ana verified this prediction when it formed on April 20 and lasted until April 24, 2003. Tropical Storm Bill made an early appearance by forming on June 29^th and making landfall in Louisiana on June 30^th.

The Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI] has been used by Hasling and Freeman since 1985 to make an outlook for the section of the US coast which has the highest risk of storm landfall. The OCSI also indicates that this year will be busy for the Atlantic Seaboard with a 64% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall.

Further research indicates that Weather Research Center’s [WRC’s ] Orbital Cyclone Strike Index’s [OCSI] secondary prediction elements verify better over the past nineteen years than Colorado State University’s Dr. Bill Gray’s Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity predictions. WRC’s secondary prediction elements consist of the number of named storms in the Atlantic Basin, number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, number of hurricane days and the number of storm days. The tables below give WRC’s prediction and Gray’s earliest prediction in April, May or June.

In Table 1 when you count the number of years when WRC’s forecast of the number of storms was within one storm, there were eight years out of the nineteen years forecasted. Gray’s forecast was only within one storm five of the nineteen years. WRC’s OCSI method forecasted the exact number of storms four of the nineteen years and Gray’s method forecasted the exact number of storms three out of the nineteen years.

Table 2 gives the number of hurricanes forecasted each year by both WRC and Gray’s method. WRC forecasted the number of hurricanes within one hurricane ten years out of the nineteen years and Gray’s method forecasted within one hurricane seven of the nineteen years.

Table 3 gives the number of hurricane days forecasted for each year. WRC forecasted the number of days within five days eight years out of the nineteen years. Gray’s method forecasted the number of hurricane days within five days five years out of the nineteen years.

Table 4 gives the forecast for both WRC’s and Gray’s model for the number of storm days in each year. WRC’s model forecasted the number of days within ten days for ten of the nineteen years. Gray’s model forecasted the number of days within ten days for six of the nineteen years.

This verification of the nineteen years of forecast demonstrates that the WRC’ OCSI model is as accurate if not more accurate than Gray’s model. The advantage of the OCSI model is that WRC’s model can make a prediction for the next ten years.

During this phase of the OSCI, storms form in the Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche over 80% of the time. This has verified with Tropical Storm Bill forming in the Gulf of Mexico.

The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun and subsequently the global circulation pattern of the earth. The sun's circulation is tracked by the sun spot cycle. Using this solar cycle to make an index, hurricane climatology has

been summarized into an index called the OCSI. This index has been used

since 1985 to make annual forecasts of which section of North America has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. In addition to its ongoing research, the Center also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator®. This service helps people navigate weather information on the Internet as well as providing detailed storm updates and related information. All of the Center's projections including past predictions can be found on the Internet, http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook .

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