TM Weather Research Center

5104 Caroline Houston, Texas 77004 Phone: 713-529-3076 Fax: 713-528-3538 E-mail: wrc@wxresearch.org

 

January 15, 2004

 

2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Houston – Meteorologist Jill F. Hasling of Houston based Weather Research Center suggest that all coastal residents especially Texans prepare for what could be an active Texas hurricane season in 2004. WRC’s OCSI® model indicates the section of the coast with the highest probability of a land falling storm or hurricane in 2004 is the West Coast of Florida with a 70% chance. Texas has the second highest risk with a 60% chance of experiencing a land falling tropical storm or hurricane. Ms. Hasling then looked to see which part of Texas had landfalls in the other years of the 2004 Phase of the OCSI. An ominous fact emerged that the two historical hurricanes which lead to the destruction of Indianola, Texas 1875 and 1886 where in the 2004 phase of the OCSI. Other years with strong Texas Storms in this phase are 1909 and 1941.

2004 could be a very active year for Texas with 6 out of the 10 years in the 2004 phase having storms which made landfall on the Texas Coast. Let hope that we have a year like the other 4 years in the phase where the storms re-curve before they make it to Texas.

 

2004 OCSI FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC

COAST OCSI CLIMATOLOGY

Mexico 50% 40%

Texas 60% 51%

Louisiana to Alabama 40% 59%

West Florida 70% 71%

East Florida 30% 41%

Georgia to N. Carolina 40% 56%

East Coast of US 20% 36%

Gulf Oil Blocks 70% 88%

 

 

 

Secondary Predictors:

Number of Storms : 7

Number of Hurricanes: 4

Number of Hurricane Days: 16

Number of Storm Days: 55

US Landfalls: 3

Cat 3 or Higher Storms: 60%

2004 could be a very active year for Texas with 6 out of the 10 years in the 2004 phase having storms which made landfall on the Texas Coast. Let hope that we have a year like the other 4 years in the phase where the storms re-curve before they make it to Texas.

The Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [OCSI] has been used by Hasling and Freeman since 1985 to make an outlook for the section of the US coast which has the highest risk of storm landfall. Further research indicates that Weather Research Center’s [WRC’s ] Orbital Cyclone Strike Index’s [OCSI] secondary prediction elements verify better over the past twenty years than Colorado State University’s Bill Gray’s Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity predictions. WRC’s secondary prediction elements consist of the number of named storms in the Atlantic Basin, number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, number of hurricane days and the number of storm days. The tables below give WRC’s prediction and Gray’s earliest prediction in April or May.

 

Summary of Model Comparison

# of Storms in Atlantic

within 1 storm

WRC OCSI

8 Years

CLIMATOLOGY

2 years

Gray’s Fcst

5 years

# hurricanes in Atlantic

within 1 storm

10 years

5 years

8 years

# of hurricane days

with 5 days

8 years

4 years

6 years

# of storm days

within 10 days

10 years

5 years

7 years

 

The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun and subsequently the global circulation pattern of the earth. The sun's orbit influences the sun spot cycle. Using this solar cycle to make an index, hurricane climatology has

been summarized into an index called the OCSI. This index has been used

since 1985 to make annual forecasts of which section of North America has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane. In addition to its ongoing research, the Center also provides storm and hurricane information via the Internet through Storm Navigator®. This service helps people navigate weather information on the Internet as well as providing detailed storm updates and related information. All of the Center's projections including past predictions can be found on the Internet, http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook .

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