1997 ATLANTIC HURRICANE OUTLOOK - Who has the highest risk?

Houston - According to research meteorologists Jill F. Hasling and 
Dr. John C. Freeman of Weather Research Center, Lousiana to Mississippi 
has the highest chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane this 
year with a 70% probability.  The next highest risk is the west coast of 
Florida with a 60% chance. 

Since 1985, these meteorologists have been predicting which section of 
the United States coast line has the highest risk of experiencing a tropical 
storm or hurricane.  There have only been two years out of the past twelve 
when a storm did not make landfall in the section of the coast with the 
highest risk and  those years the coast line with the second highest risk 
experienced a storm.    

The coast line of both Mexico and Texas have a 40 percent probability of 
experiencing a storm or hurricane.  The chances for Texas increase in 1998 
to 60 percent and in 1999 to 70 percent.  Furthermore, in 1999 there is a 
chance for more than one storm to make landfall along the Texas coast.   

The outlook calls for seven named storms in the Atlantic with four reaching 
hurricane intensity.  There is a 30 percent chance of having over 10 storms 
again this year.   This year could have storms as early as May and as late 
as November.  The summary of the risk is as follows:  Louisiana to 
Mississippi 70 percent probability; West Coast of Florida 60 percent; 
Georgia to North Carolina 50 percent; Texas and Mexico 40 percent and 
the East Coast of Florida and The Northeast coast of the United States 
30 percent.

There is a 50% chance of having a Category 3 or greater hurricane somewhere 
in the Atlantic.  A major hurricane is a storm with maximum sustained winds 
greater than 114 mph.  

Every section of the United States has a chance of experiencing a tropical 
storm or hurricane each year.  This outlook does not tell you that you will 
not experience a storm but tells you which section will most likely 
experience a storm.