TABLE 2: SOLAR CYCLONE STRIKE INDEX
Probability of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Striking the Coast Indicated
PhaseMexicoTexasLouisiana- WestEastGeorgiaEast US
AlabamaFloridaFloridaN. CarolinaCoast
1 40 40 60 70 40 -90- -60-
2 40 40 70 6030 50 30
3 -70- 60 40 -90- -70-~20~ 20
4 40 -70- -90- 80 -60- 70 30
5 ~20~ ~30~ 60 60 ~30~ 60 20
6 40 ~30~ 70 70 30 60 50-
7 ~20~ 60 60 -80- 40 ~30~ ~10~
8 30 40 40 50 30 60 -60-
9 50 60 40 70 30 40 20
10 40 -70- 50 70 30 60 20
AVG % 39 49 59 70 39 54 32
SD 14.5 15.7 16.4 11.0 15.5 20.7 16.2
PHASES
>10 25 50 -75- 50 13 50 25
Bold numbers with dashes indicate when a forecast of a storm strike could be made. 12 forecast \ could be made with a 71% chance of verifying.

Bold numbers indicate when a forecast of no storm strike could be made. 8 forecast of no storm strikes could be made with a 78% chance of verifying.

When the years that occurred after phase 10 where grouped together the forecast numbers changed to 13 forecast of a storm strike with 71% chance of verifying and 9 forecast of no storm strike with a 78.5% of verifying.

Weather Research Center
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